Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Could Inglourious Basterds win the Best Picture Oscar? (updated)

Over at Gold Derby, Tom O'Neil has gone way out on a limb, actually put his neck out there, and his credibility along with it, by predicting so early, that Inglourious Basterds may win the Best Picture Oscar. Basically, he is using deductive reasoning by pointing out that Quentin Tarantino is on the hot track to win the Director's Guild of America for Best Director. And if he does that, due to Hollywood being wary of honoring again, Clint Eastwood, or Peter Jackson, for instance, they may honor Quentin for the first time in his 20 year career. And therefore, if Quentin were to win the DGA, he would be in prime position to win the Oscar for Best Director, and historically, the Best Picture would be awarded to Basterds to compliment the Director award. Got that? Makes sense to me. You can go to the link above to read the article and the comments that blast his rationality, or just read it below.

Oscars prediction: 'Inglourious Basterds' will win best picture

As all Oscarologists know, the movie that wins best picture usually wins best director too, and the recipient of that prize is usually the same person who claims the top honor from the Directors Guild of America.

At this point in the derby, we don't have an obvious DGA front-runner. "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire" has major Oscar buzz for best picture, but it's unlikely that DGA members will consider it a spectacular directorial achievement. Lee Daniels may be nominated for his impressive dramatic achievement on celluloid, yes, but guild members usually look for more production dazzle.

Given his high Cool Factor and the critical and commercial success ($120 million U.S.; $300 million worldwide) of "Inglourious Basterds," it's likely that Quentin Tarantino will nab a bid on Jan. 7. How can guild members resist voting for the Hollywood hipster — who's never won DGA — when rivals are likely to be refried beans like Clint Eastwood ("Invictus") and Peter Jackson ("The Lovely Bones")? Rob Marshall won DGA for "Chicago" (he lost the Oscar to Roman Polanski for "The Pianist"), but buzz for "Nine" seems to be quieting a bit. Jason Reitman wasn't nominated by DGA for "Juno," but he might finally prevail with a bid, maybe even a win, if "Up in the Air" gets serious best picture momentum. It will be nominated at the Oscars, but can it win? Hmmm. Kathryn Bigelow ("The Hurt Locker") might be nommed at DGA, but women rarely triumph at these ole boys' clubs.

Therefore, by process of elimination, it looks like Tarantino is the likely front-runner, which means "Inglourious Basterds" is probably ahead for the top Oscars too. DGA will have hiked influence over the Oscars this year since there's a major gap — five weeks — between the kudos this year. DGA will be bestowed Jan. 30, the Oscars on March 7. That's all the more time for the DGA victory to impact the Academy Awards, where "Basterds" will probably score at least seven or eight nominations: best picture, director, screenplay, supporting actor (Christoph Waltz), art direction, costumes, cinematography, maybe film editing. Read more about the strong shot "Basterds" has at the Oscars here.

My spies tell me that members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association really, really love "Basterds," so expect it to score lots of major Golden Globe nominations. If many late-2009 releases stumble in the best picture race, as I think they will, "Basterds" could even win best drama picture at the Globes. If that doesn't trigger its Oscar push, then DGA will. Sometimes films get overlooked by other, early kudos and get launched Oscar bound by the directors' guild. A notable example is "Midnight Cowboy."

I was really happy to be the first to point out the brilliant eagle eyes of bluebear_74 from Livejournal on Monday, because it started a wave of happiness all through Fassyland with those new outtake photos from last summer's GQ photoshoot and those other two nice candid photos. So I got lots of visits over the past two days and even a few more people signed up for the Fassy News Network newsletter. And so because of all this in the past 48 hours, it pleases me to finally see that Google/Googlebot is showing Fassinating Fassbender some love by placing us in the 'Related blogs' top spot when you do a 'Michael Fassbender blogs' search on google.

Previously only one related Michael Fassbender website was highlighted up there, now there's three, including FF. Thank you Google! Apparently due to the activity here at FF and the visits we have been receiving, especially through people using Google to search for Michael Fassbender websites/blogs, all those inquiries and subsequent visits to this blog raised a flag to Google to get their butts in gear and recognize what's going up in here. Yeah!

ETA: I just found another great Basterds Oscar discussion at Fassy friendly blog, In Contention, started by Guy Lodge. They are discussing Melanie Laurent's Lead Actress chances, and at the end of his article, Guy tosses out the idea about why hasn't Michael been getting a lot of nomination talk especially since he outshines two other actors (Pitt and Kruger) whom are getting some nomination chit-chat. It's good to review the comments also to test the temperature to gauge what people think of Michael's performance and his nomination chances, however slim they appear to be.

"No mention whatsoever of Michael Fassbender: presumably they don’t want internal competition for Waltz, not that he’d have a snowball’s chance of a nom anyway. But neither do Pitt and Kruger, and Fassbender outacts them both, so it’s hardly fair."

Also, one of the commenters, Blake, tossed out this great factoid that I did not know:

"I was really bored one day and wanted to answer this question myself: who has the most screentime in Inglourious Basterds?

Well, first up would be Christoph Waltz. He carries the first act himself and has good chunks of screentime in the third and fifth acts, with a scene at the end of the fourth. He is on screen for approximately 42 minutes.

Brad Pitt is next, surprisingly enough. He’s on screen for, if I recall, somewhere between 37-40 minutes. I wish I kept the numbers.

Next was Melanie Laurent, but Diane Kruger wasn’t very far behind. They are both on screen a little over half an hour. They should both be considered supporting. Michael Fassbender is right behind them, with 27 minutes of screentime. Daniel Bruhl has the smallest role of the six with only 17 minutes."

Excellent analysis, Michael definitely deserved his third billing spot!


Anonymous said...

You seem to know a lot about this movie, i've been searching all over the internet and can't find what i'm looking for at all. The actor who plays the major, the one who realise that the basterds are not germans in the basement... I just can't find his name anywhere!

Simone said...

Hi Anon, the character you are inquiring about was Major Hellstrom played by the great August Diehl. A German actor very popular in Germany. He also starred in Salt as Angelina Jolie's husband. After August worked with Brad on Basterds, Brad recommended him to Angie to be hired as her husband.

Hope that answers your question. Thanks!