Saturday, January 21, 2012

No Guts, No Glory - Best Actor Oscar Predictions

Last night, Michael Fassbender was at the lovely Hackney Picturehouse for a Q&A session about Shame. A lucky girl who attended the screening shared this image of Michael at twitter. It was a sold out crowd, and so far, the UK and Europe have been very impressed with the film and Michael's performance.
Tweetpic by @maggiegogler
This weekend is also the release of Haywire starring Gina Carano, with Michael in a 10-minute role... but a crucial role as it commences the drama that Gina's character has the deal with. It's predicted to have a $9 million weekend. I will try to see it tonight, but definitely on Sunday. BTW, I picked up my copy of W magazine and Interview. Michael should have been the cover of W, but Brad Pitt does look especially handsome.

If 'Shame' isn't playing near you, go see Haywire this weekend!
I found an Oscar predictions article as a re-tweet this morning and it is from Mark Harris of Grantland. His article is very insightful, but it doesn't appear he has high hopes for Michael Fassbender. That Damien Bichir guy keeps popping up... and you know what's scary about his performance? It's that many AMPAS voters may relate more to his character's personal plight about an illegal alien landscaper who works in LA. Dun, dun dun! I got $20 that says that 75% of AMPAS voters, use under the table illegal help in California. Along with a great performance, guilt trips could come into play in recognizing Bichir's performance and give him a proper nod. I have 'A Better Life' as #4 on my netflix queue and I may bump it up to the top spot so I can review it this week, especially if he's nominated on Tuesday.

Michael won 'Best British Actor' at London Film Critics' Circle this week.
Read Harris' article here and share your thoughts. I know some of you have been expressing your Top 5 all the long, but let's re-visit those Best Actor lists in this thread this weekend, and don't hold back. If you don't think Michael will make it, don't apologize or feel the need to censor yourself, this is a No Guts, No Glory Best Actor prediction and here is my final list:

Jean Dujardin
Brad Pitt
Michael Fassbender
Gary Oldman
George Clooney

The one thing I really like about Harris' article is that he points out the blatant love and crazed fanaticism for "King" George Clooney in Hollywood. It's really sickening that George is Jack Nicholson Part II, with the latter being a far more diverse and believable iconic actor. I just don't think Leo will get a nomination this year, I just don't sense it. And Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy is such an incredible film, if the BAFTAs are 90% in the nomination vein as the Oscars, then the BAFTA lineup will repeat itself on Tuesday. Part of my DNA refuses to allow me to budge on removing Fassbender, but for other Oscar pundits, his name seems the most pliable and that is a concern to me. But, c'est la vie.
This man WILL be nominated for a Best Actor Oscar.

13 comments:

dshultz said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
dshultz said...

I hope Harris is wrong about Michael's nom, I really do, but he scares me. Personally, I was a bit put off by the statement that Dujardin, among others, was getting his nom through " personality and general goodwill". But these are my final predictions, not subject to change:

Michael Fassbender
Gary Oldman
Jean Dujardin
Brad Pitt
George Clooney

I realize it's the exact same as your's, but the last three are locks, the first one has gotten too fucking much recognition and is way too good, and the second one has got a lot of support from those across the pond and people here who are actually appreciative of him.

"And that's all I have to say about that."

Beckymonster said...

The really *short* answer?

Yes.

The more long-winded one?;) Yes and as the writer notes - he's just reading 'tea leaves'. It puts me in mind of that great William Goldman quote - "Nobody Knows Nothing".

The BAFTA and Golden Globe nominations give me hope - SAG - given the percentage who can nominate as opposed to who can vote (something like 5%?) I don't think it really adds up. Also - if they cannot see past the NC-17 rating, then phooey to them!

Everyone will find out on Tuesday. If he is nominated - yippee! If he is not, then there will be another year and I will take a small crumb of comfort that he joins Chris Nolan and Sir Ian McKellen in the 'why doesn't this guy have an Oscar?!' club.

Ideal field
Clooney (sorry!)
Fassbender
Oldman (Alt - DiCaprio)
Dujardin
Pitt

I'd say Pitt for the win - it is 'his time'. Alas, not Michael's (although I am sure that all of Ireland and Germany would vote for him in an eye blink! - The UK would go for Oldman;))

Still, not long to wait;)

Anonymous said...

I'm going to be 100% honest, I think the AMPAS are gonna stick their thumbs up their dicks while kissing each other's asses and not nominate Michael, cause they're a bunch of cock-sucking pricks:

Demain Bichir
George Clooney
Jean Dujardin
Gary Oldman
Brad Pitt

The only good thing about that list are the last 3 names, I haven't seen Bichir, and if Fassy's not nominated, I never voluntarily will. Brad Pitt was pretty damn good, worthy of a nom, Jean Dujardin was terrific, but Gary Oldman, it seemed like he was hardly doing anything, but if you looked a little closer you saw so much going on in him, he, in my humble opinion, gave the best performance of the year, with Fassy inches behind him. A lot of great performances all around in 2011, great way to start of this decade.

~Alex

P.S. excuse my utilization of foul language up above, but I just had to get it out.

Chele Belle said...

I checked out A BETTER LIFE a few weeks back. It's very timely...Bichir does an amazing job...having seen him in the Showtime series WEEDS and telenovela I was moved by his performance. That said I am not convinced he did a better job than Fassy but we shall see. I finally bought a copy of INTERVIEW and shall never do again...not when it's $9...$9 for a slim mag...I normally pay that for a foreign edition of a mag. Oh well such is life.

Iris said...

I know i will upset a lot of you, but there is just no way in hell Leonardo is not going to be nominated. so the last spot is between michael, Gary ,Bichir and maybe Gosling. and to tell you the truth, as sad as it makes me feel, i dont see Gary being nominated.

Flora said...

Yes, Pitt, Clooney, Dujardin, and definitely Clooney or Pitt for the win. That's how the Oscars work, you never win it for your best actual performance, usually just when they decide that your career body of work means that this year, regardless of the quality of the other nominated performances, it's your "turn". Michelle Williams will almost certainly win Best Actress for the same reason. Colin Firth should have won for A Single Man, but he didn't, because that's not the sort of film Oscar likes. The King's Speech - now that's the sort of film Oscar loves!

I don't think Gary Oldman or Michael are going to be nominated, although Gary is definitely due, and even if Michael was nominated, there's no way in hell they're going to give it to him for this kind of film and performance, and certainly not for his first time nominated. Maybe in three years time.

The other two slots? I neither know nor care - the Oscars have never been about rewarding the best actual performance that year, you only have to look at some of the past winners (and people who didn't win) to see that.

In short, I will be amazed if Michael is nominated, but not remotely disappointed if he isn't. The Oscars don't reward anything challenging or difficult. They're about glamour and frocks and extra DVD sales.

Iris said...

Flora you are right, it's been years since the Oscars meant something.

Anonymous said...

DiCaprio has too much good will (ala Clooney) built up for him not to be nominated for such a baity role. I think Bichir is the only real threat to Michael for the final slot, and what it will all come down to is which screener AMPAS voters were more likely to watch: A Better Life (sent in early September) or Shame (sent on December 23rd). Michael has been working the press circuit FAR more than Bichir has though, and I definitely think that (and his current "It Boy" status) is worth something. My final prediction:

Clooney
Dujardin
Pitt
DiCaprio
Fassbender

Anonymous said...

I second what Flora said - tho I continue to hope that MF will be nominated.

bluetea said...

I hope i'm wrong but it's like it says in this article ,SHAME just isn't the "safe kind" of movie the Academy likes to vote for .Which is surprising when you think that all the members work in the profession .Michael deserves an nomination for all of his hard work this year but i think it will come but in an couple of films time. I think there is an feeling among the members that he still has to earn his place in Hollywood .So i guess it's either Pitt or Clooney who will get to hold old Oscar this year unfortunately .

Anonymous said...

I agree that Bichir is more of a threat to Michael than Gary Oldman; the BAFTA nominations happened too late. His buzz peaked after the majority of AMPAS ballots had been completed and sent back, not right before or during (which would have been the ideal scenario).
Tuesday morning will definitely be a nail-biter.

Anonymous said...

I was at this Q&A in Hackney and Michaelw as just lovely. And he was very nice to me. The transcript of the talk will be online soon; I'll swing by and post the link once it's up. (Not my take - the theatre recorded it.)